09 February 2011

Market Update - 2011/02/09

US Indexေတြဟာ Overbought Territoryကို ေပ်ာ္ေပ်ာ္ႀကီးပဲ ဆက္တိုးဝင္ေနပါတယ္။ ကြ်န္ေတာ္အပါအဝင္ Shortေတြ Coverလုပ္ရတဲ့သူေတြ အမ်ားႀကီးပါပဲ။ Tradingမွာ မွားတာမွန္တာထက္ မွားတာကို ခ်က္ခ်င္းActionယူဖို့က ပိုအေရးႀကီးပါတယ္။

IBM Shortကို XDမသြားခင္ Feb 7က Coverလုပ္လိုက္ပါတယ္။ IBMဟာ Feb 7ေန့မွာ Analyst Upgradeရတာေၾကာင့္ တက္သြားသလို မေန့ညကလည္း Samsungနဲ့ Patentsေတြကို အျပန္အလွန္ Accessလုပ္ႏိုင္ဖို့ ဆိုင္းထိုးတဲ့သတင္းေၾကာင့္ ဆက္တက္သြားပါတယ္။ Feb 7မွာ Analystတစ္ေယာက္က Forward Earningနဲ့တြက္ရင္ IBMဟာ ၁၉၀ေလာက္တန္မယ္ဆိုပါတယ္။ ေနာက္၁၂လအတြက္ပါ။ အခုေလာေလာဆယ္ေတာ့ IBMဟာ ၁၇၀ထက္ေတာ့ ေက်ာ္မယ္လို့ ကြ်န္ေတာ္မွန္းမထားပါဘူး။

US Indexေတြဟာ Dataမေကာင္းရင္ Fedက ပိုက္ဆံရိုက္ထုတ္မယ္ဆိုၿပီး မက်သလို၊ ေကာင္းျပန္ရင္လည္း ေကာင္းတယ္ဆိုၿပီး ဆက္တက္တာပါပဲ။ ဒါေပမယ့္ ဘယ္Marketမွာမွ Minor Correctionမရွိဘဲ ဆက္တိုက္မတက္ပါဘူး။ ေအာက္က DJI Chartကိုၾကည့္ရင္ White Candleေတြ မ်ားလြန္းေနၿပီး Volကေတာ့ Decliningျဖစ္ေနတာေတြ့ရပါမယ္။ MFIဟာလည္း နဂိုေလာက္ အားမရွိသလို MACDဟာလည္း 52week upper endကို ေရာက္ေနပါၿပီ။ DJIဟာ အနည္းဆံုး ၃% Correctionျဖစ္ဖို့ေတာ့ ထိုက္တန္ပါတယ္။ IBMဟာလည္း MFIေရာ MACD_Hအားလံုးပါ Overbought/Bearish Divergenceကို ျပေနပါတယ္။ ဒါေပမယ့္ Marketဟာ အျမဲOver-Emotionalျဖစ္တတ္တာမို့ ခ်က္ခ်င္းေတာ့ ျပန္မဝင္သင့္ေသးပါဘူး။ Feb 8ေန့ကစၿပီး XDျဖစ္သြားၿပီမို့ ပိုၿပီး ရွင္းရွင္းလင္းလင္းေတာင္ Shortလုိ့ရေသးတယ္။

Shortတခုအလုပ္မျဖစ္လို့ Coverလုပ္ၿပီးသြားရင္ ခ်က္ခ်င္းျပန္မဝင္တာ ေကာင္းပါတယ္။ ေစ်းဆက္တက္ႏိုင္မယ့္ အလားအလာရွိေနေသးသေ႐ြ့ ခဏေဘးထြက္ေနတဲ့သေဘာပါ။ ၁၇၀နားေလာက္မွာ ၁၇၁ေလာက္ Tight stopနဲ့ ျပန္ဝင္တာ ပိုေကာင္းပါတယ္။

Happy Shorting!

14 comments:

  1. Agree, take action immediate if your plan doesn't work, more importantly learn from this experience. BTW, have you posted any entry/exit strategy?

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  2. Normally, I would long when I think a stock is really oversold and short if overbought. Also analyse whether any news affecting the share price really deserves the recent crowd reaction.

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  3. http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/AIG.A%2C%20

    အစ္ကုိေရဒီေကာင္ကုိေကာဘယ္လုိသေဘာရလဲဗ်

    အတုိး က ၉၀% ေလာက္ကုိေပးေနတာ ဆုိေတာ ့

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  4. အစ္ကိုထင္တာေတာ့ AIG.Aက Preference or Convertible type share. It is like 1/10 of AIG common stock value that was split during the crisis. The value $6+ something will go down by the dividend amount after XD so there is no point in investing in that kidn of stock type. I think it will eventually converted to AIG common share which has closed at 41.63 on Friday. Do not invest a stock because you like the dividend yield. Think Dividend as a bonus to your investment. I'll write about dividend yield soon.

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  5. အစ္ကုိေရဒါေလးေကာ မသိဘူး

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=kv-a&ql=1

    I heard that FDA approved their new drug and the stock went up like 100%. Do you think it will go up more when they make an actual sale?

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  6. If rose 100% already, I'd say all the expectations have already been priced in already. I'd avoid those kinds of speculative stocks and stick to proper and stable blue chip stocks.

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  7. အစ္မတစ္ေယာက္ ကစလုံးမွာ brokerage account ဖြင္ ့ခ်င္လုိ ့ အဲဒါဘယ္လုိလုပ္ရမလဲဆုိတာေျပာျပေပးပါလား အစ္ကုိ

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  8. Sorryညီေလး။ I have no idea of steps to open a brokerage account in SG. Should probably stick to major brokerage firms in SG as a start. Some readers on this blog from SG can probably help with his question???

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  9. To whiteghostlay>> think I can help you with opening account in SG.

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  10. @Aung Myo Htet, thank you,anway Bro.

    @YNWT, Could you please tell me the steps to open an account at SG and also tell me about the names of the discount brokers?

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  11. အစ္ကုိေရ ဒီေကာင္ေလးလည္းတစ္ခ်က္ ျကည္ ့ေပးပါ

    အလုပ္ကတစ္ေယာက္ က recommend လုပ္လုိ ့ undervalued ျဖစ္ေနတယ္တဲ ့ ဒါေပမဲ ့ အရမ္းေပါလြန္းေတာ ့ထိရမွာေျကာက္ေနတယ္

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=apcvz&ql=1

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  12. those kinds of stocks are called Penny dreadful. Never invest or trade those stocks. Stick to S&P500 - that's 500 strong blue chip companies.

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  13. For Brokage account in SG, you can do it at poems, DBS vickers, OCBC securities, Kim Eng Trading. Those are some of the major trading firm. First, you need to open central depository account with SGX. Normally trading firm will settle everything for you. If you have plan to trade US stock, then you have to fill up additional documents, but it is not hassle also.

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  14. Just to add on to above comment, you can also refer to below for brokerage firms comparison and their charges (links randomly found through Google but I found the info very useful);

    http://sti-stocksinfo.blogspot.com/2008/03/brokerage-comparison.html

    http://sti-stocksinfo.blogspot.com/2008/01/brokerage-charges.html

    I personally think, POEMS is a good option for beginners in the market. Similarly for DBS & OCBC. I heard, Kim Eng focus more on SGX and the price feed for overseas markets are not that good. Anyway, its only hearsay. You can try out the demo at their office near Raffles Place.

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